US Foreign Policy

class: left, middle, inverse, title-slide

# US Foreign Policy
## Military Deployments
### Michael E. Flynn
### Kansas State University
### Updated: 2021-09-14

---

# Lecture Overview

1. What are military deployments?

2. What do deployed personnel do?

3. Why deploy military personnel?

4. What effects do military deployments have on host-state?

---
class: left, top

# Key Questions

1. How do troop deployments compare to alliances?

2. What are some of the tradeoffs in deploying military personnel?

3. What are some of the benefits to deploying/hosting military personnel?

4. How do we evaluate the costs and benefits of US overseas basing?

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# What are military deployments?

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: left, top

# What are military deployments?

Let's define them

> The permanent or temporary placement of military personnel and assets in a location outside of the United States and its territories.

Different types:

- Combat versus non-combat deployments

- Marine Embassy Guards/Marine Security Guard

---
class: center, middle

<figure>
<img src="../images/nato-exercise-2018.jpg" style="width:700px; height:400px">
<figcaption>US, German, Spanish and Polish troops of the NATO enhanced Forward Presence battle groups with their tanks get ready for exercises in Adazi, Latvia. These 2018 exercises involved approximately 50,000 military personnel from 31 countries.</figcaption>
</figure>

---
class: center, middle

<figure>
<img src="../images/us-military-exercise-korea.jpg" style="width:700px; height:400px">
<figcaption>U.S. Marines from 3rd Marine Expeditionary force deployed from Okinawa, Japan, participate in the winter military training exercise with South Korean soldiers on January 28, 2016 in Pyeongchang-gun, South Korea. U.S. and South Korean marines participate in the endurance exercise in temperature below minus 20 degrees celsius under a scenario to defend the country from any possible attacks from North Korea. (Photo by Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)</figcaption>
</figure>

---
class: center, middle

<figure>
<img src="../images/beyond-the-horizon-vet.jpg" style="width:600px; height:400px;">
<figcaption>LAGUNA DEL RINCON, Honduras - Army Staff Sgt. Robyn Porter of the 478th Civil Affairs Battalion of Miami, Florida and Army Reserve Sgt. Mitzi Porter of the 993rd Medical Detachment (Veterinary Services) of Aurora, Colo. administer medication to a dog during their visit to this rural town. Veterinarians, like the two Porters, provided basic medical and dental care to dogs, cats and livestock during daylong visits to this and other remote Honduran villages. U.S. military medical personnel are in Honduras for the joint training exercise Beyond the Horizon. The event provides medical attention, as well as infrastructure renovation, to rural areas in this Central American country. (Photo by Sgt. Claude W. Flowers, 304th Public Affairs Detachment.)</figcaption>
</figure>

---
class: left, top

# Why Deploy Troops?

Lots of reasons

- Balance against power/threat
- Signal credibility
- Facilitate power projection capabilities
- Crisis intervention
- Train host-state soldiers
- Field experience/training for US personnel
- Humanitarian operations
- Secure trade and investment relationships

---
class: left, top

# Why Deploy Troops?

Alliances vs. Troops: Why do states choose one over the other?

- Cheap talk

- Tying hands vs sinking costs

- Force Projection

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Effects of Military Deployments

---
class: left, top

# Effects of Military Deployments

What are the consequences of deployments?

- Security effects

- Economic effects

- Public opinion

---
class: left, top

# Effects of Military Deployments

Security Effects

- Reduced military spending (for most) and a smaller host-state military

- Effect is also context-dependent

- Some increased likelihood of conflict

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: left, top

# Effects of military deployments

### Economic Effects

Evidence of:

- Higher economic growth
- Higher infrastructure growth
- Higher levels of trade between US and host country
- Higher levels of FDI into host country
- Evidence of increased trade between third-party states

---
class: left, top

# Effects of military deployments

### Economic effects

So what's the causal link?

1. Deployments signal stability, prompting investment?
2. Diffusion of technology and expertise?
3. Increasing demand by increasing consumer pool?

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: left, top

# Effects of Troop Deployments

### Public Opinion

- Military deployments have been central to US foreign policy for 70+ years

- But what do we know about their effects on the host-state? Not much.

- Big question: What do people think of these deployments?

---
class: left, top

# Effects of Troop Deployments

Possible causal pathways to influence public opinion:

- Interpersonal or social network contacts

- Economic effects

- Negative externalities

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: center, middle

---
class: top, left

# Effects of Troop Deployments

### Negative Effects

What are the downsides of hosting US personnel?

- Negative externalities

- Moral hazard?

- Crime?

---
class: center, middle

<figure>
<img src="../images/okinawan-protest-pic.jpg" style="width:600px; height:350px;">
<figcaption>Japanese demonstrators gather in Okinawa to protest the US military presence after a former US Marine and military contractor raped and murdered Rina Shimabukuro, a 20-year-old Japanese woman. June 2016.</figcaption>

---
class: center, middle